Weekly Investor Update (February-WeekFour-2025)

10 min Read February 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM UTC

Tuesday

Niger Junta Proposes Delaying Elections Five More Years Until 2030

Niger’s military rulers have proposed delaying democratic elections until at least 2030, extending their transition to civilian rule from three to five years, according to recommendations from a national conference broadcast on state television Thursday.The proposal, awaiting junta leader Brigadier General Abdourahamane Tchiani’s approval, includes abolishing all political parties and allowing no more than five new parties under a revised charter. It also permits Tchiani to run in the eventual election.The move solidifies military control in Niger, following similar transitions in Mali and Burkina Faso, which expelled French troops and turned to Russian security forces. Violence in the Sahel has surged, with 3,470 killed in six months, according to the UN.

The juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have distanced themselves from ECOWAS, creating their own Sahel security alliance. Critics see these moves as an attempt to legitimize military rule amid international sanctions and regional isolation. If the proposal is enacted, Niger’s democratic transition could be indefinitely delayed, further straining its relations with Western allies and neighboring countries.

Nigeria Holds Rates at 27.5% as Inflation Slows After Data Overhaul

Nigeria’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 27.5%, pausing a steep tightening cycle after a revamp in inflation data showed a significant slowdown. Governor Olayemi Cardoso cited macroeconomic stability and a more stable naira as reasons for the decision.The monetary policy committee (MPC) has raised rates by 16 percentage points since 2022 to combat soaring inflation and stabilize the naira, which lost 70% of its value in 2023 following currency reforms.A revised inflation calculation by the statistics agency lowered annual inflation to 24.5% in January, down from 34.8% under the old method.

Nigeria’s central bank is cautiously optimistic about its inflation fight but remains watchful of food price pressures. Analysts expect inflation to moderate in 2025, allowing for gradual rate cuts, potentially starting with a 100-basis-point reduction in May. The naira’s stability—trading between 1,470 and 1,550 per dollar—suggests economic confidence is improving. However, risks from U.S. trade policies and global inflation trends remain. The next MPC meeting in May will be critical in determining if monetary easing can begin, potentially reducing rates to 24.75% by year-end.

Mozambique’s Economy Sees Biggest Contraction in Seven Years on Crisis

Mozambique’s economy shrank 4.9% in Q4 2024, its steepest contraction in at least seven years, as post-election protests disrupted business activity. This follows a 3.7% GDP increase in Q3, according to the National Statistics Institute.The downturn surpasses even the Covid-19 slump in 2020. The October 9 election unrest hit government revenue and deepened Mozambique’s debt crisis, prompting S&P Global Ratings to downgrade its local currency credit rating to CCC- on Wednesday.Mozambique, once one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, has struggled with a $2 billion debt scandal and an insurgency linked to Islamic State, delaying $50 billion in natural gas projects from TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil.

Mozambique’s economic instability raises debt default risks, with S&P warning of a potential “selective default” (SD) if the government’s planned local debt swap auction is classified as distressed. Despite easing protests, sporadic demonstrations continue, highlighting Mozambique’s fragile business climate. The country’s economic recovery hinges on restoring investor confidence and reviving stalled gas projects, critical for long-term growth and debt sustainability.

Kenya Plans Eurobond Sale to Buy Back $900M in Debt

Kenya will issue new dollar-denominated bonds to finance the buyback of $900 million in Eurobonds due in 2027, the National Treasury said Monday. The move aims to smooth Kenya’s external debt maturity profile and reduce repayment pressure.The buyback offer began on February 19 and closes on March 3, with priority given to existing bondholders who opt in early.This follows Kenya’s $1.48 billion Eurobond issuance in February 2024, which was used to retire debt maturing four months ahead of schedule.

Kenya is focusing on debt restructuring as part of a broader fiscal consolidation strategy. The government aims to reduce its public debt-to-GDP ratio from 64% in 2024 to below 60% by 2028. Total public debt stood at $81.8 billion at year-end 2024, driven by increased borrowing and currency depreciation. The success of the new Eurobond issue will be crucial for Kenya’s debt sustainability and investor confidence.

Giant Telco Sonatel Sees 18% Jump in Full-Year Net Income

Senegal’s Sonatel, the leading telecom operator in francophone West Africa, posted 9.6% revenue growth in FY24 to XOF 1,776.4 billion ($2.84 billion), driven by mobile data, broadband, and Orange Money.EBITDA after leases (EBITDAal) increased 12.3% YoY to XOF 839.2 billion ($1.34 billion), while net income surged 18.7% YoY to XOF 393.7 billion ($629.1 million). Capital expenditures rose 18.5% YoY to XOF 300.5 billion ($480.3 million), reflecting investments in infrastructure and 5G expansion.The BRVM-listed mobile operator (SNTS) retains 60% market share across Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and Sierra Leone, with 42.4 million mobile subscribers (+3.3% YoY) and 12.6 million Orange Money users (+8.4% YoY). The stock remains the most valuable on the BRVM, representing 24.1% of total market capitalization.

Sonatel’s 40th anniversary in 2025 marks a strategic shift toward digital expansion, fintech, and fiber investments. The company continues to dominate the BRVM, starting the year at XOF 24,000 ($38.37) per share and rising 10.4% YTD to XOF 26,500 ($42.37). Over the past month, the stock climbed 8%, ranking 21st on the exchange. Sonatel’s dividend outlook remains strong, with a proposed dividend of XOF 1,839 per share ($2.94), translating to a net payout of XOF 1,655 per share ($2.65) after tax. Risks include regulatory uncertainty (Mali’s ECOWAS exit), inflation, and competition in mobile money, but Sonatel remains a top BRVM investment, offering stable returns and continued market leadership.

Nigeria GDP Grows at Fastest Pace in Three Years on Services Boom

Nigeria’s economy grew 3.84% in Q4 2024, its strongest pace in three years, driven by a 5.37% expansion in the services sector, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.This outpaced growth in Q3 (3.46%), Q2 (3.19%), and Q1 (2.98%), bringing full-year GDP growth to 3.40%, up from 2.74% in 2023.Despite the improvement, growth remains below President Bola Tinubu’s 6% target. Nigeria plans to rebase its GDP data, reflecting structural changes in sectors like ICT, e-commerce, and the marine economy, last updated in 2014, when it overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy.

Nigeria’s economic recovery continues, fueled by services, industrial expansion (2%), and agriculture (1.76%). However, oil production remained flat at 1.54 million barrels per day, limiting overall growth. The IMF projects 3.2% GDP growth in 2025, with structural reforms and improved data collection playing a key role in Nigeria’s economic outlook. However, currency devaluation and inflationary pressures remain key risks.

Gozem Gets $30M for Vehicle Financing, Expansion in Francophone Africa

Gozem, a ride-hailing and fintech platform operating in French-speaking West Africa, has raised $30 million in a Series B round—$15 million in equity and $15 million in debt—led by SAS Shipping Agencies Services and Al Mada Ventures. The funding will support vehicle financing and expansion into new markets.Launched in 2018 as a ride-hailing service in Togo, Gozem has evolved into a super app offering mobility, e-commerce, vehicle financing, and digital banking across Togo, Benin, Gabon, and Cameroon. The company focuses on professional drivers, helping them access financing to buy motorcycles, three-wheelers, and cars, with repayments deducted from daily earnings.With nearly 10,000 registered drivers and over a million users, Gozem plans to raise an additional $20 million to further expand in Francophone Africa. The company has also entered digital banking with Gozem Money, following its 2023 acquisition of Moneex.

Gozem’s strategy aligns with Southeast Asian ride-hailing and fintech giants like Grab and Gojek, integrating multiple services into a single platform. Unlike some African super app attempts, Gozem has found success by focusing on mobility and financing as core growth drivers. Vehicle financing remains a major competitive play, with rivals like Uber-backed Moove and Asaak offering similar models. However, Gozem’s ecosystem approach—expanding into e-commerce, digital payments, and ticketing—could strengthen customer retention. The backing from MSC Group’s SAS Shipping Agencies and Al Mada Ventures signals investor confidence in Gozem’s model. If the company meets its growth targets, it could emerge as a leading super app in Francophone Africa’s mobility and fintech sector.

Naspers-Owned Prosus to Acquire Just Eat Takeaway in $4.3B Deal

Dutch tech investor Prosus is set to acquire European food delivery firm Just Eat Takeaway.com in an all-cash deal worth €4.1 billion ($4.3 billion). The offer values Just Eat shares at €20.3 each, a 63% premium to Friday’s closing price.Prosus, majority owned by South Africa’s Naspers, already holds a 28% stake in Delivery Hero. Just Eat shares surged 54.7% on Monday, reaching a new 52-week high, and closed up 54.1%. Prosus shares fell 8.7%, while Delivery Hero was little changed after an early rise of 3.2%.Just Eat has struggled post-pandemic as demand slowed. It delisted from the London Stock Exchange last year to cut costs and simplify compliance. In November, it sold GrubHub to Wonder for $650 million, far below its original $7.3 billion purchase price. Prosus expects the acquisition to strengthen Just Eat’s position in key European markets and expand its food, grocery, and fintech services.

Just Eat Takeaway.com’s acquisition marks a strategic consolidation in the food delivery industry, where companies have struggled to maintain post-pandemic growth. The sector initially thrived as lockdowns drove demand, but shifting consumer habits and rising costs have pressured firms to refocus operations. The deal strengthens Prosus’ presence in European food delivery, building on its existing investments in Delivery Hero. It also signals further consolidation in the space, with major players focusing on profitability rather than rapid expansion. For Just Eat, Prosus’ backing could provide financial stability and resources for expansion beyond food delivery into grocery and fintech. The company has already reduced its exposure in the U.S. with the sale of GrubHub. The broader industry trend suggests a move towards efficiency, scale, and strategic partnerships as food delivery firms adapt to changing market conditions.

Alterra Capital Acquires Majority Stake in ARP as Tourism Surges

Alterra Capital Partners has acquired a majority stake in ARP Africa Travel Ltd., one of East Africa’s largest destination travel operators, as it bets on the growth of Africa’s tourism sector.The private equity firm, formed by former Carlyle Group executives in 2023, is acquiring the stake from the Moledina family, which will continue managing the business. ARP operates a fleet of over 300 vehicles with 200+ guides providing luxury and experiential travel across Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, South Africa, and Victoria Falls through partnerships.Alterra’s investment signals strong confidence in Africa’s tourism recovery, as international arrivals surged by 74 million in 2024, according to the UN World Tourism Organization. Kenya alone expects 3 million visitors in 2025, driven by growing demand for safari, conservation, and cultural experiences.

Alterra, which has already invested in Chill Beverages and Java House, plans to expand ARP’s footprint in Nordic, Middle Eastern, and Asian markets over the next 12 to 18 months. The fund, backed by Carlyle founders David Rubenstein and Bill Conway, as well as Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, is targeting a $400 million final close by September. Africa’s tourism sector is attracting significant investor interest, with governments prioritizing infrastructure and technology improving travel accessibility. ARP’s growth strategy includes acquisitions, and with strong backing from private equity, it is well-positioned to capitalize on the continent’s booming travel market.

This material has been presented for informational and educational purposes only. The views expressed in the articles above are generalized and may not be appropriate for all investors. The information contained in this article should not be construed as, and may not be used in connection with, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or hold, an interest in any security or investment product. There is no guarantee that past performance will recur or result in a positive outcome. Carefully consider your financial situation, including investment objective, time horizon, risk tolerance, and fees prior to making any investment decisions. No level of diversification or asset allocation can ensure profits or guarantee against losses. Articles do not reflect the views of DABA ADVISORS LLC and do not provide investment advice to Daba’s clients. Daba is not engaged in rendering tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult a qualified professional for this type of service.