AfDB Sees Stronger Growth For Africa as Region Weathers Tariff Shock

BREAKING NEWSMay 28, 2025 at 12:22 PM UTC

TLDR

Africa’s economic growth is forecast to rise to 3.9% in 2025, up from 3.3% in 2024, as investment in agriculture and energy infrastructure buffers the region
In its latest African Economic Outlook, the AfDB noted that despite ongoing global trade disputes, 21 African countries are set to grow above 5%
The report highlighted stronger regional trade, manufacturing gains in East Africa, and increased oil and gas output in Senegal and Niger as key growth drivers

Africa’s economic growth is forecast to rise to 3.9% in 2025, up from 3.3% in 2024, as investment in agriculture and energy infrastructure buffers the region from global trade tensions, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

In its latest African Economic Outlook, the AfDB noted that despite ongoing global trade disputes—including US-imposed tariffs and countermeasures—21 African countries are set to grow above 5%, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal expected to exceed 7% growth in 2025.

The report highlighted stronger regional trade, manufacturing gains in East Africa, and increased oil and gas output in Senegal and Niger as key growth drivers. West Africa’s performance is also being lifted by domestic consumption and value-added agriculture.

North Africa is expected to recover from a 2.6% growth rate in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, while parts of Southern Africa—including eSwatini, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—may see growth above 6%. However, Lesotho and Botswana face significant exposure to tariff risks, especially in apparel exports.

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Key Takeaways

The AfDB’s outlook suggests Africa is positioned to withstand global economic headwinds, leveraging public investment in critical sectors. Agriculture and energy remain pivotal to Africa’s resilience strategy, enabling local value creation and reducing vulnerability to external shocks. Despite paused US trade tariffs, uncertainty continues to affect smaller, export-reliant economies like Lesotho, which sends nearly half its exports to the US. In contrast, countries like Senegal and Niger are gaining from upstream energy projects. The AfDB sees regional integration, through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and infrastructure development as key to sustaining momentum, creating jobs, and broadening growth beyond traditional sectors. As trade patterns shift and value chains evolve, Africa’s ability to drive intra-regional commerce and build competitive industries will define the depth and durability of its recovery.

Economy

Africa

AfDB

African Economic Outlook

GDP Growth