Africa’s Copper Market Faces Supply Strain as Demand Stays Firm

BREAKING NEWSJanuary 8, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

TLDR

Africa's copper market in 2026 faces strong demand and tight supply, with prices expected to remain elevated around $10,500 per ton.
Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia are key players, accounting for 1/6 of global copper output.
Infrastructure development is crucial, with competing export corridors reshaping the copper trade for Africa's fastest-growing supply.

Africa’s copper market is entering 2026 pulled between strong demand expectations and tight supply conditions, as production of both refined copper and concentrates struggles to keep pace with global needs linked to the energy transition.

Copper prices surged above $12,000 per ton in December on supply disruptions and tariff speculation in the United States. Prices are expected to cool but remain elevated, with Reuters forecasting an average of around $10,500 per ton in 2026.

This environment has reinforced the global importance of the African copper belt, dominated by the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia. Together, the two countries already account for about 1/6 of global copper output. According to USGS data, the DRC produced about 3.3 million tons in 2024, while Zambia produced around 680,000 tons, out of global production of 23 million tons.

In the DRC, output growth is driven by large industrial projects led mainly by Chinese groups. China Molybdenum reported 650,200 tons of copper production in 2024, while Ivanhoe Mines plans 380,000–420,000 tons from Kamoa-Kakula in 2026. Governance risks remain a concern after the government halted artisanal processing in late 2025.

Zambia is targeting a rebound, forecasting output above 1 million tons in 2026 and 1.2 million tons in 2027, backed by major investments from First Quantum and Barrick.

Daba's newsletter is now on Substack. Sign up here to get the best of Africa's investment landscape

Key Takeaways

The core issue for 2026 is not copper prices but Africa’s ability to deliver reliable concentrates to global smelters. Treatment and refining charges have become the key stress point, signaling shortages in feedstock even as demand growth moderates. Infrastructure will be decisive. Competing export corridors are reshaping the copper trade. The US and EU-backed Lobito corridor aims to move copper west to the Atlantic, while China is upgrading the Tazara railway to link Zambia to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean port. The US Development Finance Corporation has committed $553 million to Benguela rail upgrades, while China-backed partners have signed a $1.4 billion deal for Tazara. For producers, competition between corridors could cut transport costs and reduce bottlenecks. Geopolitically, it will help determine who controls access to Africa’s fastest-growing copper supply. If the DRC and Zambia manage to expand output without political or logistical shocks, Africa will remain central to global copper balances. Any disruption, however small, now has the power to move global prices.

Commodities